Ocean Futures: Integrating Climate Modelling, Economic Analytics, and Policy Design for a Sustainable Blue Economy

Abstract

This study examined the role of integrating climate modelling, economic analytics, and policy design in promoting a sustainable blue economy. Using panel data from emerging and coastal economies over the period 2005–2024, the research applied advanced econometric techniques, including panel unit root tests, co-integration analysis, and Fully Modified Ordinary Least Squares (FMOLS). The findings revealed that renewable energy had a significant negative impact on CO₂ emissions (β = -0.42, p < 0.01), indicating its effectiveness in reducing environmental degradation. In contrast, GDP growth (β = 0.36, p < 0.05) and trade openness (β = 0.18, p < 0.05) had positive effects on emissions, suggesting that economic expansion and globalization contributed to environmental pressure. The climate risk index showed a strong positive relationship with emissions (β = 0.51, p < 0.01), highlighting the increasing vulnerability of ocean-based economies to climate change. Governance effectiveness had a negative and significant impact (β = -0.29, p < 0.05), emphasizing the importance of strong institutional frameworks in promoting sustainability. The study confirmed the existence of a long-run equilibrium relationship among climate, economic, and policy variables, indicating their interdependence. The results suggested that integrating predictive climate tools with economic planning and policy design enhanced decision-making and improved sustainability outcomes. The study concluded that a coordinated and data-driven approach was essential for achieving a resilient and sustainable blue economy.

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