Beyond Economic Growth: Reassessing Economic Development as a Driver of Sustainable Development Goal Achievement

Abstract

The purpose of this study is to reassess the role of economic development as a driver of Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) achievement by comparing GDP-centric metrics with multidimensional frameworks that incorporate human development, institutional quality, and environmental sustainability.

Using a balanced panel dataset of 139 countries over the period 2010–2024, this study estimates hierarchical fixed effects models to quantify the explanatory power of traditional versus expanded development indicators. Three progressive models were estimated: a GDP-centric baseline, a human development expanded model, and a fully specified "Beyond GDP" multidimensional model. System GMM estimation and alternative dependent variables were employed as robustness checks.

Results show that while GDP per capita is a significant predictor in baseline models (β = 4.82, p < 0.001), its effect diminishes substantially and becomes statistically insignificant (β = 0.92, p = 0.18) once human development (HDI), governance (WGI_Avg), and renewable energy share are controlled for. The fully specified multidimensional model explains 83% of the variation in SDG Index scores—a 25-percentage-point improvement over the GDP-only baseline (Adjusted R² = 0.58). Robustness checks using System GMM and alternative dependent variables confirm these findings.

The study relies on internationally standardized datasets with some indicators inconsistently reported in low-income countries. The panel design controls for time-invariant country effects but cannot fully capture context-specific dynamics. The 2010–2024 window excludes earlier decades limiting insights into long-term structural transformations.

The findings provide empirical validation for the UN's "Beyond GDP" initiative and offer actionable insights for policymakers seeking to accelerate 2030 Agenda implementation. Governments should adopt multidimensional dashboards for national planning, prioritize institutional quality and anti-corruption reforms, and accelerate green energy transitions with pro-poor design.

This study provides robust empirical evidence that economic growth alone is neither necessary nor sufficient for SDG achievement; rather, multidimensional capabilities, particularly human capital, institutional integrity, and green transitions, are the true drivers of sustainable progress. The hierarchical modelling approach demonstrates that multidimensional frameworks do not merely "add noise" but fundamentally improve explanatory power and policy relevance.

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